It’s official. Gilbert Arenas will miss the rest of this season with a league imposed suspension. Where do the Wizards go from here?
(Why didn’t I also mention Javaris Crittenton? Because 99% of people who follow the NBA have no idea who Javaris Crittenton is. Seriously - Javaris Crittenton could run onto the court during the upcoming All-Star Game waiving a sign that says “I am Javaris Crittenton” and 99% of people who follow the NBA would still have no idea who Javaris Crittenton is. So no, I’m not going to talk about Javaris Crittenton.)
My previous posts have waffled back and forth between blowing up the roster and standing pat at least somewhat. The reason for that is that I’m a true “homer” when it comes to the Wizards, something I’ve never tried to hide. Until they are mathematically eliminated, I always think they have a shot. I’ve kept hoping against hope that they would get on a roll and somehow salvage this thing, so my last post advocated keeping the team together.
Well, as of this posting the Wizards are 6.5 games out of the 8th playoff spot in the East. So unless they win all of their games over the two weeks between now and the All-Star break, they have no shot at making it and should probably go the blow up route. I really hate to type those words because that probably means swallowing their pride and trading Jamison to Cleveland for the expiring contract of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, PF prospect JJ Hickson, and the Cavs 2010 first round pick. (Seeing AJ help LeB**** win a title would be absolutely sickening.) They would also have to ship out Caron Butler for whatever they can get, hopefully expiring contracts and a first round pick at the very least. Maybe they also trade Haywood, but getting value for Jamison and Butler would be their primary concerns.
Next on the agenda will be resolving the ownership issue. From what I’ve read, the Polin family has their own interpretation of the agreement Abe had with Ted Leonsis. Want to guess what that interpretation is? Yeah, that they can keep the team. Leonsis, of course, feels that he has an agreement and is proceeding as such. But I expect this thing to get ugly and for poor Abe to roll around in his grave a bit before it’s over. The most interesting part is that if Leonsis takes over the team and brings with him a new front office, that could potentially pave the way for Gilbert to come back. Gil hasn’t said he won’t play for the Wizards again, only that he won’t play for current GM Ernie Grunfeld again. Of course I support Ernie 100% but it’s much easier to replace a GM than it is to replace an asset like Arenas. I still think Gil’s done in DC, but I’m just saying it’s not a lock quite yet.
The final piece of the plan would be to lose as many games as possible while still developing their young players. It’s not going to be pretty, folks. But, as many grandma’s say “it’s to hurt if it’s to heal” and we’re going through the pain part right now. How soon will the team begin healing? Maybe sooner than you think. A new owner next season and a new Collective Bargaining Agreement a year or two after that could put the Wizards right back on the thick of things. If you haven’t guessed, that was the “homer” in me speaking. The reality is this team could be crap-tastic for years no matter what.
Either way, can you imagine what this team might be like if they hadn’t hitched their wagon to the following names: Kwame Brown and Gilbert Arenas? We began the last decade with MJ blowing the #1 pick on Kwame Brown and ended the decade with Gilbert Arenas pleading guilty gun charges and being suspended for most of the season. It’s almost like the 4 straight playoff berths in-between never happened. It’s kind of funny how much the past 10 years for the Wizards have sort of mirrored the past 10 years for the economy.
Actually, it’s not funny at all.
When we last looked in on our heroes, they were tied up and helplessly watching a lit fuse slowly burn towards the TNT that would blow them up and initiate a complete rebuild of this team. Since then, we’ve gotten the news that Gilbert Arenas has been suspended indefinitely and subsequently pled guilty to a felony that could carry jailtime. In response, the organization has made several statements that were not terribly supportive of Gilbert and they have also taken down any reference that Gilbert ever existed as a Washington Wizard. In light of this, we might have to rethink this rebuild. Why?
Well, it’s a lot easier to rebuild when you’ve got a cornerstone to build around. I was going on the assumption that Gil would be that cornerstone. He could carry the team while the young guys develop and maybe also attract some quality free agents. But with his fate in DC seeming all but sealed, it might make more sense to keep guys like Jamison and Butler around to keep the team afloat. Otherwise, this team could stink for years. Is that what we really want?
Looking at the current roster, the young guys already here have talent but are they future All Stars in waiting? I would have to say no. And no matter how much the team would lose, don’t even think about getting a stud like John Wall in the draft. This team ain’t that lucky. Finally, regardless of how much cap space is cleared, no resepctable free agent is going to sign with a team that has absolutely nothing going for it. So where’s the talent supposed to come from for the team to get good again? That’s why I’m saying we might have to put the rebuild on pause. It eventually has to happen but doing right now could be disastrous longterm.
And waiting might not be such a bad thing. The team has been winning without Arenas and the Big Two (Butler and Jamison) seem to be in a better flow now that they don’t have to defer to Gil anymore. Mike Miller is finally healthy and Randy Foye is starting to play like the guy we thought we were getting when he was acquired for the 5th pick in last year’s draft. And even with all that’s happened, they are somehow still within 5 games of the playoffs. (I love the East!) The last time the team made the playoffs it was without Arenas so maybe they can make a run. Even if they can’t, at least they can stabalize the organization going into the summer so that it doesn’t continue to be the complete mess that we see today. They can also probably get better value in trades if they ride out the season instead of having a yard sale on the heels of the Gilbert fiasco and only getting pennies on the dollar.
Ultimately it’s up to GM Ernie Grunfeld to decide what to do. For my money, I think the team stays together until the summer. What happens then will depend on how they finish out the season, which at this point is anybody’s guess.
It’s over. The experiment with the “Big Three” and an offense-only approach has been exposed for the failure that it is and it’s time to make some serious changes. The media knows it. The fans know it. And now apparently the Wizards organization knows it. From reports of Grunfeld inquiring about swapping the remainder of Arenas’ $111M contract for Tracy McGrady’s expiring deal, to Flip Saunders going off in last night’s post-game press conference about the lack of defense - it’s clear now that everyone is on the same page when it comes to blowing this thing up.
I’ve already posted about Caron Butler not fitting with what Flip wants this team to do offensively. But that’s nowhere near as bad as what Jamison is (or more importantly isn’t) doing on defense. The man is a complete and utter sieve. He can’t defend his own man and is never in the right position to help a teammate. And what’s up with all the 3’s he’s putting up this year? He’s fallen in love with the jumpshot and that’s not good for the offense, regardless of what his numbers are. For a guy who’s supposed to be a “leader”, he’s actually part of the cause of a lot of the team’s problems on both sides of the ball.
But it’s not all bad. Gilbert is actually improving steadily of late and looks like he could eventually return to his “Hibachi” form. If that’s the case, then this team has a stud scorer to build around. They also have a defensive 7-footer in Haywood, which most teams don’t have. Mike Miller is a solid do-it-all veteran. And youngsters Andray Blatche and Nick Young have shown flashes of possibly being starting quality players. The cupboard is definitely not bare. Add in a little defense and some better chemistry and this could be a respectable team again.
There’s also good news in that both Butler and Jamison should have decent value around the league as we approach the trade deadline. I’ve already posted some Butler trade ideas in previous posts, with the focus being on obtaining a starting caliber player or a young talent to develop. However, Jamison is a bit of a different story. He’s got a bigger contract than Butler and is much older. Teams aren’t likely to give up a lot of young talent to rent an aging one-dimensional player for the next two years. But if the Wizards can get expiring contracts in return for Jamison so they can unload his salary, that at least gives them the flexibility to make other moves down the road. And if they can get a pick or two in the deal, it’ll be icing on the cake.
Regardless of what happens, the fuse has officially been lit and the clock is ticking. I’m definitely looking for GM Ernie Grunfeld to be very active over the next month and a half. Let’s hope that his moves end up being as saavy as they are necessary. Go Wizards!
Okay, I admit to getting a little happy after the first five games and jumping to a few conclusions that haven’t been exactly correct. I was wrong about Nick Young being glued to the bench (he’s starting now). I was wrong about the team going on a run once Jamison got healthy (they are still below .500 with Jamison). And I was wrong about Foye being an impact player (he’s currently losing minutes to the recently signed Earl Boykins). My bad ya’ll. My bad.
For those of you still reading (LOL), we are now a solid 1/5 and change into the season. Here are a couple of observations that are more educated.
- Gilbert Arenas is NOT back (I was wrong about that, too). Sorry folks, but he’s not. What we saw in the first few games was great for a guy who’s barely played in the last 24 months, but it’s still not the Gil we know and love. And I see three reasons for that.
First, he’s still not consistently explosive physically. The quickness to get into the lane is there but he’s not going up strong enough to finish, especially late in games. Second, he’s not getting any love from the refs. He’s not getting the same calls he was getting in 2006 (but reason #1 might have something to do with this). Finally, he’s trying to be Chauncey Billups and he’s not. Some blame that on Flip, but I don’t see Flip as the kind of coach to force a square peg into a round hole. I think it’s more of Gilbert trying to remake himself but not knowing quite how to do it.
What’s the solution? I don’t know. Arenas was a superstar when he was a score first PG, but that only takes a team so far (see Allen Iverson). He’s not big enough to be a full-time SG and he doesn’t have the mentality to be a pure set-up PG. Gil is the very definition of a “tweener”, a man without a position. So he has to play PG…even though he really isn’t one. This is the $100,000,000 conundrum that the Wizards need to figure out how to deal with.
- Caron Butler still needs to be traded. How one player can singlehandedly stop our offense in its tracks and give the momentum to the other team is beyond me. I do have to acknowledge that he is playing better defense this season. But he is still in Eddie Jordan’s one-on-one offense mentality. And what’s up with the obligatory pump fake that doesn’t fool anybody? C’mon, Caron.
The thing is, Washington can’t just dump him for nothing. He’s a near All-Star level player who is still in his prime and on a reasonable contract. The Wizards need to get some kind of value in return, with priority on improving their defense and acquiring young talent. An expiring contract or two wouldn’t hurt either, since trimming salary would make it easier for Washington re-sign guys like Brendan Haywood and Mike Miller next summer. Here are a few trade ideas:
Wizards trade: Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson
Blazers trade: Andre Miller, Travis Outlaw, and Nicolas Batum
Wizards trade: Caron Butler
Bobcats trade: Gerald Wallace
Wizards trade: Caron Butler
Bulls trade: Luol Deng
Wizards trade: Caron Butler
Rockets trade: Shane Battier and Kyle Lowry
Well, that’s all for now. The Wiz have a nationally televised game on Thursday against the Boston Celtics. A win could go a long way to answering a lot of their outstanding questions. Holla!
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After 5 games, the Wizards are 2-3 with two losses in their division and a loss to the rival Cavs. Here are a few things we’ve learned so far:
- Gilbert Arenas is back. The quick first step, the explosion to the rim, the unlimited range - it’s all back. He’s made some bad decisions in end-of-game situations but that comes from only playing 15 games in the last two years. He’ll get even better as the season goes on.
- Flip Saunders is a better coach than Eddie Jordan. He’s already gotten the guys to play better defense and the offense is less one-on-one (except for when Butler gets the ball, which I’ll talk about later). The lineup rotations make much more sense and he’s even helped Blatche turn the corner. The team still has a long way to go in some areas, though. It’s hard to over-write the past 5 years in only 5 games. But at least they are moving in the right direction.
- Caron Butler needs to be traded. There, I said it. As much as people around here love them some Tough Juice, he’s just not fitting in with the new coach and players. When the ball comes to him, everything stops. You know he’s going to shoot it. This started last season when Caron got selfish after it was clear the team wasn’t going anywhere. Apparently he still feels like he’s “the man”. But he’s not - Gilbert is. Butler also makes horrible decisions when passing, especially in the open court and out-of-bounds situations. And he’s already missed a game with a boo-boo. The guy’s contract is up in 2011 and he’s going to probably want a deal similar to the $50M that Jamison got last summer. No way they should pay a 31 year old small forward with an injury history $12M per year. But somebody will, which is why they should trade him now instead of losing him for nothing down the road.
- Andray Blatche is the PF of the future. I was nowhere near the Blatche bandwagon the past few seasons but he looks like a totally different player right now. He’s playing more under control, especially defensively, and he’s playing smarter. Jamison who? LOL
- Speaking of Jamison, this team really needs him on offense. Fabricio Oberto is a great passer, plays dirty under the rim, and (like any self-respecting international player) flops to draw charges. But the guy is a complete self-check on offense. Defenses are leaving him open and clogging the lane so Gil can’t drive. Of course Arenas can still get to the rim but it’s more difficult than it would be if other teams had a scorer like Jamison that they couldn’t help off of.
- DeBrick Stevenson hurts more than he helps. I had my hopes that he’d be a solid part of the rotation but the guy can’t make a shot to save his life (even free throws) and for a “defensive stopper” he’s pretty sucky. Great job of holding Wade to 42 on 50% shooting last night! Maybe the back surgery he had last season was the beginning of the end for him. Whoever we trade Caron to hopefully can be conned into taking DeBrick as well.
- This team truly is cursed. First we lost our franchise player for two years. Then he comes back 100% and we lose Jamison and Miller to shoulder injuries. What the heck?!
Just for fun, a few things we’ve learned about the rest of the league:
- The real refs are just as bad as the replacements. Every game I watch brings me closer to buying Tim Donaghy’s book.
- Shaq can still impact a game. If he’s active early and getting opponents in foul trouble, Cleveland is going to be hard to beat. And you can’t double him because Cleveland has enough shooter to make you pay. Great pickup by the Cavs.
- Danny Granger isn’t ready to lead Indiana back to the playoffs. After their 3rd straight loss he left the locker room without speaking to the media, showing zero leadership. He got a maximum level extension and is the face of that team. Act like it, Danny.
- A bunch of teams will regret passing on Ty Lawson. Dude fell all the way to 18th on draft night, and now? He’s averaging nearly 12ppg on 59% shooting in only 21mpg. Philly is one team that comes to mind that should have taken Lawson instead of JRue Holliday.
Well, that’s all for now. Let’s hope Mike Miller’s injury isn’t as serious as Jamison’s and let’s hope the Wiz can put a few wins together to get some confidence. Holla!
AA
The 2009-2010 NBA tips off next week, so here’s my official Wizards preview:
Point Guard
Obviously the discussion starts with Gilbert Arenas. I believe that he is fully healthy, but I don’t expect to see the “Agent Zero” that most remember. Is that good or bad? I think it’s going to be good because he’ll take less quick shots and pass more. I just hope that he doesn’t become too passive.
Randy Foye is the primary backup but we’ll probably also see him playing next to Arenas at times, especially if the team needs a big scoring run. He’s already shown that he can score in bunches and his size gives him the tools to be a solid defender at the one.
Mike James and Javaris Crittenton are essentially emergency players at this point. James is nearing the end of his career but can still score a bit. Crittenton is a young player who projects to be a backup PG at best, with most of his value coming on the defensive end.
Shooting Guard
Newcomer Mike Miller has been very productive in preseason and is the favorite to start. But there is a case for him to come off the bench because he can play either wing position, score, and help Foye with the playmaking duties. DeShawn Stevenson is probably the team’s best perimeter defender and can make the open three point shot. Nick Young might find himself out of the rotation altogether if he doesn’t start doing something other than missing shots.
No official word yet on who will start, but look for Stevenson to get minutes and for Miller to be on the floor at the end of games. Nick Young should find a comfortable chair cuz he’ll be sitting a lot this year.
Small Forward
The Wizards have an All-Star starter in Caron Butler who is noticeably in the best shape of his life. The aforementioned Mike Miller will likely spend a lot of his minutes there. They can also slide Jamison to small forward if Saunders wants to create matchup problems with a big lineup or if the team needs better rebounding. And don’t forget about Dominic McGuire, the 6’8 defensive specialist who was a starter for much of last season.
Power Forward (Updated with Jamison injury news)
Normally reliable starting PF Antawn Jamison will spend most of the first month of the season on the bench with a shoulder injury, so Andray Blatche will have to fill some serious shoes. I’ve never been a Blatche fan but we need him to come through, otherwise this team could stumble out of the gate. Can he avoid his tendencies to play like a guard, and instead use his 6′11 frame to do some damage in the paint?
When Jamison returns, expect his numbers to go down a bit this year because of the added weapons, but he’s still going to have solid production. He also should be at least slightly better on defense with the return of Haywood and an improved scheme.
Center
I will go on record right now and say that Brendan Haywood is one of the elite defenders in today’s NBA. Maybe he’s not a great shot blocker, but he alters more shots than almost anybody in the league. He’s also one of the few big men who can guard guys in the post one-on-one.The Wizards literally go from one of the worst defensive teams to the one of the middle of the pack defensive teams just by his presence on the court. If he can get any help from the other guys defensively, the Wizards will be really dangerous this year.
Former NBA and International champion Fabricio Oberto was brought in to provide valuable veteran saavy and second year center JaVale McGee seems to make great plays almost by accident just by being as big and athletic as he is. Given that McGee is still pretty raw, expect to see Oberto get major minutes this season.
Coaching
The Wizards finally have a legitimate NBA head coach in Flip Saunders, someone with extensive playoff experience and who has one of the best winning percentages in NBA history. Flip is going to be much better at using this roster according to their strengths, and he’s going to improve this team’s defense. He has had Top-10 defensive teams more often than not in his coaching career and he is a master at using zone schemes to make up for players who aren’t great individual defenders. Flip alone adds at least 5 wins to this team.
Management
General Manager Ernie Grunfeld has been great for this team. He’s the one who brought in Gilbert Arenas (when Eddie Jordan reportedly wanted Kevin Ollie instead). He’s also the one who traded for Antawn Jamison. He’s also the one who let guys like Larry Hughes and Jared Jeffries leave instead of overpaying to keep them. He’s even the one that somehow got the Lakers to give us Caron Butler for Kwame-freaking-Brown. This is what happens when an organization turns things over to a competent General Manger. (Are you listening Dan Snyder?)
Some would say that Grunfeld hasn’t done enough or that he’s created a team that looks flashy but has little substance (especially defensively). Others don’t like the recent trade for Miller and Foye. I disagree, but we’ll get to see how things play out over the next few months. One thing you have to admit is that Ernie isn’t afraid to make a move. So if things don’t go as planned in the first half of the season, I would be shocked if the Wizards were not active at the trade deadline.
Outlook (Updated with Jamison injury news)
The Wizards finally have the right coach on the sidelines and finally have the depth to better sustain injuries. Unfortunately, that depth will immediately be put to the test because Jamison will miss anywhere from 3-6 weeks to start the season. I think the Wizards could start off slow, but have a great second half of the season. I predict they finish with 45 wins, finish with the 5th seed, and have enough momentum get to at least the second round of the playoffs.
Here’s how I see the rest of the East shaping up:
Playoff Teams
- Cleveland Cavaliers – LeBron and Shaq plus great defense equals 70 wins
- Orlando Magic – most stacked team in the league after the Lakers
- Boston Celtics – got deeper but also got older
- Atlanta Hawks – solid but unspectacular
- Washington Wizards – they’ll be very dangerous come playoff time
- Chicago Bulls – could push the Wiz for the #5 if Luol Deng is healthy all year
- Miami Heat – Wade still needs more help
- Philadelphia 76ers – EJ gets lucky (again)
Non-Playoff Teams
- Toronto Raptors – paid a lot of money for a soft team
- Indiana Pacers – they can’t seem to avoid injuries
- Detroit Pistons – expect Hamilton and/or Prince to be traded mid-season
- New York Knicks – not enough size or defense to really compete
- Charlotte Bobcats – when will Michael Jordan realize he stinks as a GM
- Milwaukee Bucks – expect Michael Redd to be traded if he’s healthy
- New Jersey Nets – in full rebuilding mode
There you have it, folks. I’m officially on the record with my predictions for this season. I couldn’t be more excited to get things going. My only regret is that this team doesn’t have a rockin’ theme song. You know, something like this from back in the day:
http://www.geocities.com/wizznutzz/youdaman.mp3
Ahh, the memories…LOL
Welcome to my new blog, the #1 place for Washington Wizards talk in DC! It’s a new season, with a new coach and new players. Guys are back from injury and this team finally has some buzz around it again. There’s going to be lots to talk about and I’ll be right here keeping it real all season. And you can chime in using the Comments function.
Tune in next week for my first article - a preview of this year’s Wizards team, including where I think they rank in a resurgent Eastern Conference. Thanks for stopping by and don’t forget to bookmark!
